Highlighting a recent paper by Nebel updating Limits to Growth work

The paper is "Recalibration of limits to growth: An update of the World3 model",
Arjuna Nebel et al (2023)
https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/jiec.13442​

This work is massively important. The chart below, from the Nebel paper, illustrates the core issues of collapse risk.

It's where multiple disciplines can cooperate, debate and work on solutions to the upcoming challenges of steering humanity through what Hagens and White (2021) call 'the bottlenecks of the 21st Century'.

Of course we can't predict with any great precision when each of the factors reach inflection points, or proceed to significant collapse, and over what timescales. There are large uncertainties in these matters.

But we can realise that these are matters of asymmetrical risk, which means that there is great risk management value in deliberately and purposely 'acting too soon' (rather than 'just too late'), so that we prevent the worst-case scenarios from unfolding.