Planetary CFO
  • Blog/Home
  • About
  • Ideas in a nutshell
  • A Finance Manual for the Planet
  • Contact
  • Gallery

Planetary CFO

My response to the online poll question “Do you think climate change can be reversed in your lifetime?”

4/3/2022

0 Comments

 
The original poll is on LinkedIn at:
https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:activity:6905417123930456064/
 
The short answer is no, because I’m already nearly 60 and my remaining life expectancy is probably less than thirty years (to about, say, 2050).
 
However, in order to provide an optimistic view (and, I hope, a realistic one), I’d like to provide a longer answer and share my views about what I think can be achieved by 2050 and what happens beyond that.
 
The climate science community (whose work is reported on in extensive breadth and depth in IPCC reports) is telling us that, because of the immense inertia in earth systems, and the enormous quantities of greenhouse gasses (“GHGs”) that we have already emitted, since the Industrial Revolution began, and continue to emit, there will be a huge problem for a long time to come.  It is almost inevitable that there will be some “overshoot” beyond optimal climate for humanity and other life.  Some would argue that we have already left the zone of optimal climate, with current global warming of more than 1 degree Centigrade above pre-industrial. 
 
For several decades, we have failed to even “bend the curve” of GHG emissions, let alone had a clear picture of when the following will occur:

  1. “peak emissions” , followed by
  2. “net zero emissions”, followed by
  3. “peak warming”, ie “global temperature and climate stabilisation”, followed by
  4. “global temperature and climate optimisation”
 
However, we have a better picture of supportive concepts and milestones along the pathway to such inflection points, eg:

  1. global peak oil / coal / gas production
  2. Keeping 1.5 alive
  3. Carbon pricing / social cost of carbon
 
Carbon Brief have calculated that, based on BP’s data, global peak oil (demand and production) occurred in 2020.  See:
https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-world-has-already-passed-peak-oil-bp-figures-reveal
That is cause for optimism that the same can be done for coal, gas and, in fact, all fossil fuels that lack CCUS (Carbon Capture Use or Storage). 

We know, for example from dealing with the Covid 19 pandemic, that when we are serious enough about “bending the curve”, we can do it.

And with almost every country in the world setting Net Zero Carbon targets and commitments, I think the poll question is exactly right to ask, essentially,  not “if” but “when” we will reverse climate change. 
I’m confident that, because we now know what caused it (us) and we know how to stop it getting worse (by changing what we do), that we will do that by 2050 (so, within my lifetime) and that it means we also know how to reverse it.

The remaining supplementary questions are about how long it will take to reach "optimal climate" and how to establish what the new optimal temperature and climate will be.  For clarification, by “optimal climate” I really mean a range of limits within which climate will vary naturally.  Think of it like the buffers in a ten pin bowling alley.  In the same way these buffers prevent the ball going to one side or the other and force it to stick within the lane, the human hand on the GHG emissions 'tiller' will prevent the earth getting either too warm (leading to runaway “hothouse earth”) or too cold (leading to runaway “next ice age”).

My only significant doubts in this respect are about the ever-present risk of reaching irreversible “climate tipping points” before we hit “peak warming”.

If we hit one of those (or a cascade of them) then all bets are off …
0 Comments



Leave a Reply.

    Author

    The Planetary CFO - working towards a sustainable World Balance Sheet.

    Categories

    All
    Climate Change
    Economics
    Inequality
    Land Use
    Migrants
    Sustainability
    The Role
    Transport
    World Balance Sheet

    Archives

    January 2023
    December 2022
    November 2022
    October 2022
    September 2022
    August 2022
    July 2022
    June 2022
    May 2022
    April 2022
    March 2022
    February 2022
    January 2022
    December 2021
    November 2021
    October 2021
    September 2021
    August 2021
    July 2021
    June 2021
    May 2021
    April 2021
    March 2021
    February 2021
    January 2021
    December 2020
    November 2020
    October 2020
    September 2020
    August 2020
    July 2020
    June 2018
    May 2018
    April 2018
    March 2018
    February 2018
    January 2018
    December 2017
    November 2017
    October 2017
    September 2017
    August 2017
    July 2017
    June 2017
    May 2017
    April 2017
    March 2017
    February 2017
    January 2017
    December 2016
    November 2016
    October 2016
    September 2016
    August 2016
    July 2016
    June 2016
    May 2016
    April 2016
    March 2016
    February 2016
    January 2016
    December 2015
    November 2015

Powered by Create your own unique website with customizable templates.
  • Blog/Home
  • About
  • Ideas in a nutshell
  • A Finance Manual for the Planet
  • Contact
  • Gallery