Steelman - my proposition about human optimum wellbeing in balance with the rest of nature - for Sean Rush to steelman
Sean Rush declined to enter into a steelman debate with me. This would have been my draft proposal for him to steelman in such a debate.
My draft Steelman Proposition about: Human optimal wellbeing, in balance with the rest of nature, over the global warming era (ie from 1850 to 2100 and beyond) ------------------------------
Human wellbeing and thriving, and it’s balance with the rest of nature, to 2100 and beyond, is under threat. These threats come from human activities, and include weather disruptions, sea level rises and other climate changes driven by human activities, overlayed with natural variations.
Evidence for existence of major climate shifts since 1850 is building and there is a small but significant risk of even more dramatic and potentially irreversible shifts occurring by 2100, especially if climate tipping points are reached (or have already been crossed).
Additionally, rates of change of some climate indicators such as global average temperatures (and others) are already unprecedented in timescales longer than the timespans over which large scale human civilisations have developed and thrived and in which large-scale outdoor rain-fed agriculture has been a key enabler of civilisational success and scale.
A particular focus is needed on feeding people and getting them affordable energy as a short term (2023 - 2033) and medium term (2033 to 2050) priority whilst also decarbonising the global economy by mid-century (say 2050) using GDP-positive projects and infrastructure changes based on advice from relevant and focused experts.
The risk of climate tipping to a new, hostile equilibrium state should be kept to a “manageable” level. This will be possible using technical, social and behavioural tools at humanity’s disposal, and tools that can be reasonably predicted to be invented by 2100. Overshoot beyond Paris 1.5, perhaps even Paris 2.0, is likely, and a narrow path back to climate stability, and eventually long-term optimisation, is possible, but only if risks associated with climate tipping points are carefully managed.
my steelman proposition ends --------------------------------------------
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